S&P Global's recent financial disclosure revealed a complex picture, with its stock experiencing a downturn following the release of its fourth-quarter results. While the company managed to surpass revenue expectations, its adjusted earnings per share slightly underperformed against analyst predictions. Furthermore, the issued guidance for adjusted earnings in the upcoming fiscal year of 2026 did not meet Wall Street's consensus, contributing to the negative market reaction and raising questions among investors regarding the firm's immediate trajectory.
In the fourth quarter, S&P Global reported adjusted earnings of $4.30 per share, falling marginally short of the $4.32 anticipated by analysts. However, the company's revenue demonstrated resilience, reaching $3.916 billion, which not only exceeded estimates but also represented a notable 9% increase compared to the previous year. This discrepancy between earnings and revenue figures highlights a nuanced operational performance, where top-line growth was robust, yet profitability metrics faced slight headwinds.
Looking ahead to 2026, S&P Global projected adjusted earnings between $19.40 and $19.65 per share. This forecast landed below the consensus estimate of $19.79, signaling a more conservative outlook than what the market had anticipated. Concurrently, the company projected revenue to be in the range of $16.348 billion to $16.655 billion, with an expected organic constant-currency growth rate of 6% to 8%. Despite the cautious earnings guidance, the company's CEO, Martina Cheung, emphasized the strong divisional performance, particularly highlighting momentum in private markets and expanding client relationships.
The fourth quarter showcased solid underlying operational strength. GAAP diluted earnings per share saw a significant 32% rise to $3.75, and the adjusted operating margin improved to 47.3%. All five of S&P Global's business segments recorded revenue growth, with Ratings increasing by 12%, Indices by 14%, Market Intelligence by 7%, Energy by 6%, and Mobility by 8%. For the full year 2025, the company achieved $15.336 billion in revenue, an 8% increase, and reported adjusted diluted EPS of $17.83, up 14%. S&P Global also demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns, distributing $6.2 billion through dividends and share buybacks, exceeding its adjusted free cash flow.
Despite these positive operational indicators, the lower-than-expected earnings guidance for 2026 appears to be the primary driver behind the stock's decline. The company anticipates adjusted operating margins to expand by 10 to 35 basis points in 2026, or 50 to 75 basis points excluding OSTTRA. At the time of publication on Tuesday, S&P Global shares were trading down by 7.64% at $410.26, reaching a new 52-week low. This market reaction underscores the sensitivity of investors to forward-looking earnings projections, even in the presence of strong past performance and revenue growth.
S&P Global's recent financial disclosure presents a complex performance evaluation. While the company demonstrated strong revenue growth and operational improvements across its segments in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2025, the adjusted earnings per share for Q4 and the forecast for 2026 did not align with market expectations. This led to a significant dip in its stock value, highlighting the critical role of future guidance in investor sentiment despite robust underlying business health and a commitment to shareholder returns.