A recent analysis by Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research indicates a significant downturn in the safety performance of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. Drawing upon data from the FSD Community Tracker, which monitors critical disengagement events per city mile, Johnson notes a substantial regression in Tesla's metrics.
The data reveals that following the introduction of FSD version 14.2, the metric for 'city miles to critical disengagement' plummeted to 809, a sharp decrease from its peak of 4,109 recorded with FSD v14.1 in October 2025. This downturn has raised eyebrows, especially considering Tesla CEO Elon Musk has previously acknowledged similar tracker data. In a comparative context, Johnson pointed out that Waymo, backed by Alphabet Inc., did not remove safety drivers from its autonomous vehicles until achieving 30,000 city miles without critical disengagements, highlighting a stark disparity in safety thresholds between the two platforms.
This situation has led Johnson to publicly question the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) role in overseeing the deployment of Tesla's FSD technology on public roadways. While Tesla reported in February that its Supervised FSD had covered over 8.2 billion miles, including 3 billion in urban environments, and claimed a sevenfold reduction in major collisions compared to human drivers, the analyst's findings present a contrasting perspective on the system's safety evolution. At the time of this report, Tesla's shares experienced a decline, trading at $389.03, down 1.94%.
The ongoing development of autonomous driving systems represents a transformative leap in transportation technology, promising enhanced safety and efficiency. However, the path to widespread adoption necessitates rigorous testing, transparent reporting, and robust regulatory oversight. Ensuring the highest safety standards is paramount, not just for the credibility of the technology but for public trust and the well-being of all road users. As these systems evolve, a collective commitment to continuous improvement, critical evaluation, and responsible deployment will pave the way for a future where autonomous vehicles safely integrate into our daily lives.